Obama Gains Average of 8.5 Points with Unified Dems

(Cross-posted at Daily Kos)

Watching recent polls roll in about the Democratic race, I noted the continuing trend of Obama gaining with Democratic voters. In states where Obama was once losing to McCain by single-digits, the Democratic nominee has pulled ahead because he has increased his share of Democratic voters.

This trend is going to continue. As we get further and further away from the fierce primary battle, as we pass the VP selection, the convention, and the Presidential debates, more and more Democrats are going to support Obama. Clinton voters and previously undecided Democrats are going to come back into the fold and vote for Obama (and against McCain) in November.

For a comparison, I took a look at the exit polls from 2004 to see how John Kerry did with the Democrats in a year when the Republican brand was still strong. Surprisingly, a comparatively weak candidate like Kerry was able to pull in 89% of the Democrats nation-wide. In that race, Democrats made up 37% of the electorate and John Kerry pulled in 24% of the non-Democratic vote.

Comparing public opinion polls from the last month with the final exit polls from 2004, we can see that Barack Obama is lagging behind where John Kerry was in November of 2004. Where Kerry picked up 92% of Democrats in Alabama, Obama only gets support from 70%. Kerry received support from 85% of Democrats in Pennsylvania, Obama currents gets only 70%. This trend continues in every state surveyed.

What would happen if Obama gets the same level of support as John Kerry? How many points would he gain in the polls? Where would his support be then?


Using 16 state-wide polls by SUSA and others from 5/19 to 6/11, I discovered that Obama would pick up an average of 8.46%. In Washington, he would go from 49% support to 63.8%, a gain of almost 15 points. In Virginia, he would gain 5.3 points, going from 49% to 54%. In New Mexico, Obama would gain 10.4%, giving him 54.4% of the vote. He’d gain 13 points in Massachusetts, putting the state safely out of reach. Iowa would be a 57-43 blow-out.

These numbers assume that McCain’s share of the electorate does not decrease as the election nears. It also assumes that Obama will not increase his share of non-Democratic voters. Furthermore, I used Democratic turnout as predicted by the most recent public opinion polls. If only his Democratic voter share matches that of Kerry, he will beat McCain in the following states (Obama’s share of vote):

California (55%)
Iowa (57%)
Massachusetts (59%)
Michigan (53%)
Minnesota (54%)
Missouri (52%)
New Mexico (54%)
New York (57%)
North Carolina (52%)
Ohio (57%)
Oregon (56%)
Pennsylvania (56%)
Virginia (54%)
Washington (64%)
Wisconsin (53%)

This list is not all-inclusive, as recent polling data is not available for all states. But if Obama can beat McCain in Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, and all the Kerry states by just bringing Democrats home, then he is going to win over 330 Electoral Votes.

This should show us all the importance of uniting the Democratic Party and the benefits of our extended Democratic primary. Democrats now solidly outnumber Republicans by 10 points or more nationwide. There are more Democrats now than ever before.

Obama can win by 130+ Electoral Votes by unifying the Democratic Party and maintaining his current standing among independents and Republicans. While it is a long way until November, these are all very positive signs.

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